In the case of value bets, you would basically have 2.15 to one side, and 1.85 to the other . That is, one of the odds (2.15) is a value odd and, consequently, translates into a value bet. This concept is important for you to identify a value bet and be able to take advantage of it when it appears.
How to find value bets
In football, value bets go far beyond the simple 50% of heads or tails . After all, there are multiple outcomes and elements that impact the outcome of the match.
These are some factors that cause the stakes to change in each game, as well as between the betting sites themselves. To understand better, let’s look at a practical example :
Let’s say that Fluminense will host Vasco da Gama for the Campeonato Carioca . In the 1v2 market , where you try to guess whether the game will end with a home team win (1), a draw (x), or a away team win (2) , the odds are 2.10, 3.75 , and 2.75 respectively. By way of knowledge, the lowest odd is always the event most likely to happen.
We will explain later how to convert odds into probability. Considering our example, the odds based on the displayed odds would be:
47.62% for Fluminense to win 26.67% for a tie 36.36% for Vasco da Gama to win
However, our analysis showed that, in fact, Fluminense has a 60% chance of winning, instead of 47.62% as the betting site presented. According to our calculation, the odd should be 1.67. But based on the odds on the betting site, the odds offered are 2.09 . That difference from 2.09 to 1.67 is the extra value of the value bet.
To facilitate the conversion of odds into probability, it is necessary to use the following formula:
1/odd * 100 = Probability (%)
If you prefer, our Legal Betting team has created an online odds calculator , which makes it easy to convert odds into odds and vice versa, which helps you to identify a value bet.
This calculation system and concept are the main elements of the value bet. Of course, things are not as simple as they seem. Therefore, it is important to know how to recognize a value bet. Value bet recognition happens when you calculate the probability of an event and discover that the odd presented by the betting site is higher than the actual probability you calculated.
Now that you know the concept of value betting, how to recognize a value bet, and how to convert odds into odds, it’s time to know how to place a value bet .
How to make a value bet
Now that we know how to find value bets it is essential to know some tactics and strategies that help in identifying online bets. The main elements you should take into account are:
Margin of bookmakers Probability Odds calculation
The edge of bookmakers
Value betting techniques include bookmakers’ margin.
The marginis nothing more than a guaranteed profit from the bookmaker. The higher the bookmaker’s margin, the less interesting the bet will be for you . For you to understand what the profit margin is in bookmakers, let’s go to a basic example:
Let’s go back to our heads or tails example, with a 50% chance for each side. This would translate to odds of 2.00 for each of the outcomes. However, the betting site offers an odd of 1.90 for each of the results. This ensures that 10% of the value of the bets is the profit of the betting site you are betting on.
How to place value bets
By understanding what margin means, you will understand just one of the elements that go into value betting. For the next element is probability . However, this calculation is very complex and requires a lot of knowledge of the sport you are betting on to arrive at the final values.
Probability is something difficult to calculate . Because it is necessary to create a system for automatic calculation of values. In addition, several elements must be taken into account to know what is the real probability of the event to occur.
And one of the main mistakes bettors make when calculating odds is taking emotions into account when deciding which team is most likely to win.
Whether to calculate the value of Jogo do Bicho bets or for any sporting event, it is important that you know how to calculate the odds and margins of the sports betting site. Since you will find markets with two outcomes, and other markets with three outcomes, it is important to know how to do the calculations for each of these options.
- Calculation based on two results
To know how to place value bets, consider that, in a tennis match , the result for the victory of player 1 is 1.49, and for player 2 it is 2.80, converting these odds into odds we have the following results:
Player 1 win: (1/1.49)x100=67.11% Player 2 win: (1/2.80)x100=35.71%
To calculate the betting site’s margin you must add the two odds above, and decrease the resulting value by 100. That is:
Margin = 67.11% + 35.21% = 2.32%
Sportsbooks also offer markets with more results, such as 1v2, where 3 results are possible. Let’s take an example of this type of market 토토사이트.
- Calculation based on three results
The three-result calculation system is similar to the two-result calculation system . However, in the case of three outcomes, you will have to take one more probability into account when calculating the betting site’s margin . Let’s go to an example 토토사이트.
Let’s say that Volta Redonda will host Flamengo. In this case, the sportsbook offers the following odds for the 1×2 market:
Home team win (1): 6.00 Tie (x): 6.25 Away team win (2): 1.40
Converting the odds into probabilities, the values are as follows:
Home team win: 16.67% Tie: 16% Away team win: 71.42%
Using the same logic as the margin calculation for two outcomes, we add the probabilities and subtract the value by 100:
Margin = 16.67% + 16% + 71.42% – 100 = 4.08%
In this case, the bookmaker’s margin is 4.08% . This value is relatively high when compared to the other bookmaker we mentioned in the previous example.